January 23, 2019
Noon Position: 45 58S 111 52E
Course(t)/Speed(kts): SExE 6
Wind(t/tws): NWxW 15 – 20
Sea(t/ft): W 5
Sky: Layered stratus and altostratus
10ths Cloud Cover: 10
Cabin Temp(f): 59
Water Temp(f): 46
Relative Humidity(%): 66
Sail: Twins poled out full.
Noon-to-Noon Miles Made Good (nm): 143
Miles since departure: 15 526
Avg. Miles/Day: 140
Days since Cape Horn: 54
Miles since Cape Horn: 7,892
Avg. Miles/Day: 146
Longitude Degrees Made Good (degrees minutes): 3 23
Total Longitude Made Good Since Cape Horn (degrees minutes): 179 09
Avg. Long./Day: 3.32
Today’s news is that by early evening, Mo and I will have crossed half the meridians between Cape Horn and an east-about course ending in Cape Horn again, this just as we begin to dip under western Australia.
Notice, above, total longitude made good of 179 degrees and 9 minutes as of noon; that leaves 51 minutes (roughly 35 miles at latitude 46S) to 180 degrees, or half the degrees in a circle. Which is what Mo and I are doing…going around a big circle.
So, half way took 54 days.
It’s impossible not to count those days forward. Distane to Go (DTG) to Stewart Island, south of New Zealand’s South Island is 2,303 miles; at 145 miles a day, 16 days. From there to Cape Horn is 5,185 or another 36 days. So, that math says 52 days to a Cape Horn return.
But those are rhumb line distances, and sailboats don’t know from straight lines. By way of example, to get half way, we’ve sailed 7,892 miles. But if we’d sailed cleanly along 46S, our mileage would have been 7,502. That’s a 5% overshoot, a penalty for following wind and waves. My experience is that a 10%, even a 15% overshoot is common.
But let’s add just 5%. That makes DTG 7,488 + 374 = 7,862 / 145 = an estimated 54 days yet to go to Cape Horn.
Oh, right. We’re half way!
Big weather comes in on Thursday and continues through the end of the week. Let’s hope it’s go fast weather, not slow down weather. Right now, it looks like that could go either way.